The Diverge Letter

Buy the confusion.

A quarterly equity letter for the names the market cannot make up its mind about. We find businesses whose fundamentals are pulling away from their price, and we show our work.

Subscribe for 99 dollars a quarterRead a sample first

How it works

Three steps, every quarter.

01

Quantitative gates

The full US filer universe walks through four hard gates: revenue growth beating operating expense growth, free cash flow margin inflection, share count discipline, and a mispricing signal. Most names never make it through.

02

Moat scoring

Survivors are scored against a seven point moat rubric by a local language model. Customer obsession, iteration speed, self disruption, a real data moat, and more. Only high scorers reach the watchlist.

03

Divergence rank

The watchlist is ranked by divergence: how hard the fundamentals slope and the price slope are pulling apart. The wider the gap, the louder the confusion, the higher the name ranks.

The method, in the open

Four gates. Seven moat criteria.

The four quantitative gates

  • Revenue growth beats operating expense growth, held over multiple quarters
  • Free cash flow margin is inflecting up from a low base
  • Share count discipline: little to no dilution year over year
  • A mispricing signal: drawdown, short interest, or price to free cash flow compression

The seven moat criteria

  • End customer obsession as it scales
  • Iteration speed against real competitors
  • Willingness to self disrupt
  • Proprietary data at category leading scale
  • Actively training models on that data
  • Product experience users can feel
  • A cult user base that will not switch
SCREEN FUNNEL, most recent run: universe → revenue beats opex → FCF inflection → share discipline → mispriced → survivors → watchlist

Every issue publishes the funnel counts, the moat score per name, and the filter values. You see the screen, not just the pick.

Pricing

One tier. Cancel anytime.

$99 / quarter
  • The full ranked watchlist, every quarter
  • All seven moat scores per name
  • The complete screen funnel and filter values
  • Delivered to your inbox on publish day
  • Cancel anytime, no lock in
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